With just under a week to go until our event at The Magic Circle in London is on February 3 I though it worth reflecting on 2016 and the folly of predictions in today’s world.
One of the key challenges for any organisation trying to respond to an unpredictable future is the hockey-stick graph or geometric growth that is increasingly describing adoption and the impact of technology on our society. That is to say that the figures stay relatively flat and predictable and then grow out of all proportion to what went before. Adoption of the Internet is a good example, the rise of the smart phones and that of tablets is another.
Some may still argue that wearables as a fad has passed, citing them being around for a while but not really seeing the growth one would expect. Perhaps though, this is the false sense of security brought by the flat bit of the graph? The same is true of self-driving cars, a concept that’s been alive and well in Hollywood and on TV shows for decades (anyone remember the Hoff and Kit?) and is only now starting to creep onto real world roads.
If the trends of cheaper and ubiquitous technology continue then these trends could at some point see that hockey stick moment, that massive growth in adoption and impact. For insurers – just reacting may not be good enough, instead perhaps it is worth spending time thinking: it is only a matter of time until it is ‘normal’ for clothes and accessories to be internet connected, for cars to drive themselves and for people to live longer through better management of their health.
This is precisely the type of thinking we’re hoping to bring to our event, which will be a mix of folks who are on the curve of some of these changes and also some tools to help insurers plan and respond.
So while I’m waiting for my Internet connected suit to come along (not that fanciful, you can already get connected yoga-pants and nappies that tweet) and the car that drives me to work – I look forward to spending some time those of you can attend our event next week to discuss the future of insurance and to ask the question, What if … ?
from Celent Insurance Blog http://ift.tt/1nQQ4sM