2014 Latin America Outlook

The following text was published today in Inter-American Dialogue’s Financial Services Advisor under the title: “What is driving the insurance market in Latin America?”

I provided my view to FSA in advance, and now that it is out there I thought it made sense to share it with you through our blog.

Growth continues to be a common theme throughout the region, though not at the same pace that before and not equally in all countries. The Pacific Alliance countries have been growing faster than Mercosur countries, for example.

Insurance in Latin America has its own dynamics and has been growing year over year, even beyond GDP increase, and is expected to continue this trend through 2014.

A growing middle class is driving insurance buoyance in the region, with Brazil much setting the tone. Estimates indicate that 40M people have gone from living in poverty to the middle class in the past decade in Brazil. Nevertheless, there is a large number of people in the base of the pyramid (BoP) which is also of interest of insurers.

Infrastructure investments, trade, and group life and benefits to attract employees are key drivers for commercial insurance growth.

We are seeing moves towards consolidation in certain countries which are imposing stronger capital requirements and also acquisitions and new entrants into high growth potential markets, such as Brazil, Colombia and Peru. Competition is increasing and new segments are being targeted with more focus. All this is driving higher investments from insurers as well as competition for qualified talent in the marketplace.

Some countries are moving towards a stricter risk-based capital measurement, and the rest should move in the same direction as part of a global and regional trend.

In many countries sales practices are far from innovative and what customers expect to be. There is a need to evolve in the use of distribution channels and provide a better customer experience. Most insurers are still tied to legacy systems that impose a burden to become more competitive, efficient and smart.

Rising inflation, weakening of financial market due to lower quality of loans (as they compete for the raising middle class); lower demand of products from China (mostly commodities), Europe and USA, and risk aversion from foreign investors are some of the concerns shadowing the region’s potential.

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